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Trends in Cesarean Section in a Tertiary Referral Hospital: Time-Series Analysis
Зохиогч
Enkhmaa, Davaasambuu
Enkhtaivan, Oyunkhand
Erdenebileg, Nasantogtokh
Baatar, Tsedmaa
Bayanbileg, Shinetugs
Khadaa, Tsolmon
Seded, Khishgee
Sharifi, Khalid
Он
2025 оны зургаадугаар сарын 30
Төрөл
journal article
Хэвлэгч
Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences
Journal
Central Asian Journal of Medical Sciences
Volume
11
Issue
2
Start Page
69
End Page
83
ISSN
2414-9772
2413-8681
Хураангуй
Objectives: To analyze the causes and indications of C-sections conducted at the tertiary referral center and to forecast future patterns. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 25,311 delivery records from 2013 to 2022 at the National Center for Maternal and Child Health, Mongolia. All C-sections from 22 weeks’ gestation onward were included. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire form including maternal, obstetric history, surgical indications, and other influencing factors. Causes of C-sections were identified through descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and ARIMA time-series modeling. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata BE 18.0, with p < 0.05 considered significant. Results: The mean gestational age was 38.1±2.09 weeks, the 88.4% of pregnancies were term deliveries, and 42.6% were emergency C-sections. The most common indications for C-section were previous C-section, maternal comorbidity, severe preeclampsia, and fetal distress. According to time-series analysis, despite of no significant change in the C-section rate during the study period, the trends in C-sections are growing. The percentage of nulliparous women in total C-sections is likely to increase by 0.81% per year. In 2030, the percentage of C-sections will reach 35.5%, whereas the percentage of emergency C-sections in total C-sections will reach 59.5%. Conclusions: C-sections for nulliparous women were mainly due to failed birth induction, failed labor stimulation, and fetal distress. It is estimated that the percentage of C-sections in total births will increase by 0.02% annually, reaching 35.5% by 2030.